Why #M6 toll owner has no reason to drop fees even if it is a ghost road @richardwestcott

So much for privatising the road network or encouraging private sector investment in it, now there are those who are calling for those small parts of the network not in public hands to be nationalised.

Today’s FT (page 2) reports a plea for the M6 Toll road to be returned to us and run on our behalf by the government or its agents, presumably the Highways Agency.

According to the paper, Geoff Inskip, chief executive of CENTRO, the West Midlands transport authority, is rightly warning that even with the utilisation of the hard shoulder, the existing M6 route through Birmingham will be even more heavily congested in the future as traffic is forecast to rise by a quarter in the next decade and a half.

He says this rise should be seen against a steady decline in the numbers of vehicles using the toll route, down from a peak of 55,000 a day in 2006 to around 30,000 now.

The operator of the M6 Toll, Macquarie, apportions much of the fall to the downturn in the economy and the associated general decrease in traffic. But this is not the whole story. Much is down to pricing.

To understand why, you only need look at this table from the M6T Research Study Modelling Report by AECOM which is dated 2009 but for some reason was published on the DfT website – along with several other related documents – today:

The figures seem to say it all. Even as you increase prices and traffic violume falls the revenue continues to go up, all the way to a toll of somewhere between £4.50 and £5.00. In the absence of a reason not to, why would an operator have any incentive in doing anything other than maximising revnue especially when – so one would suspect – your costs actually fall: fewer cars = lower running costs in terms of wear and tear, and staffing levels?

Things would be different in a regulated industry where there are limitations on price rises and an arbitrator (regulator) balances the needs of the consumers with the requirement of the companies to make a return. As and when we have more private sector investment in the road network ministers would do well to remember the importance of this role.

As for the M6 toll, don’t expect anything to change soon. While Macquarie apparently discusses with its lenders how to restructure its debt, the DfT says it has no plans to change the ownership status of the route; at least not until 2054 when the current concession ends.

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Pedal power not pedal to the metal. A multi-modal day trip to France.

Last weekend – the first nice weekend of the year – I took a little excursion to the French town of Gravelines – a pretty coastal town about 15 miles south west of Dunkirk – by car, bus, boat and bike.

To catch the 9.25 sailing, and wanting a bit of a lie-in, I drove (rather than take the hourly train) to Dover Docks and parked up as a foot passenger.  Walking up to the check-in desk with my bike (a Brompton) they appeared bewildered – “cyclists must cycle into the port, not drive”.  I managed to convince them to let mine onto the foot passenger bus.  Full size bikes can’t go on the shuttle buses.

However, on the other side of the Channel, exiting Calais, the state of the roads was a revelation: goods traffic is quickly whisked onto the motorway straight from the port (compared to the lorry park that is Dover, whether or not Operation Stack is in effect), and you can be on a quiet French D road in minutes from getting on to dry land.

It took me a few minutes to realise the other main difference – it was smooth.  Even the minor back roads were in good nick, in stark contrast to the wretched roads local to me, which do expensive damage to cars and put cyclists and bikers at serious risk.  Straight and smooth as the roads were, motorists saw us in good time and overtook using all of the generously proportioned surface: the fact that French roads are, in general, half as busy as those in the UK does no harm either.

After a stop in Gravelines – lunch at L’Arlequin, steak et frites – the return leg was just as pleasant (and just as flat!).

Sadly, the port insisted we board via what looked like the Coach lane, putting us in amongst vehicles with some of the largest blind-spots and away from the terminal, where I had hoped to find some French pastries and a couple of bottles of red with my name on them to stuff the saddlebag with.

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Improving petrol + diesel cars driving down #CO2 emissions as #EV sales predicted to languish.

Sales of electric cars are set to fall far short of official expectations.

The figures seem to speak for themselves. Electric cars might eventually save the planet but it won’t be for a long time yet.

The Committee on Climate Change has previously said it would be “feasible and desirable” to have up to 1.7 million fully electric and plug-in hybrid cars on the road by 2020. But most industry analysts predict the number will be significantly lower.

Powering Ahead, a review by the consultancy Ricardo-AEA of a range of authoritative market forecasts, shows even the more positive assessments foresee only 200,000 plug-in hybrid and pure battery powered cars being sold each year in the UK by 2020. Some experts think sales of these types of vehicle will actually be as low as 40,000.

It is more than two years since the government introduced the plug-in car grant. Yet even with subsidies of £5,000 per vehicle available only 3,600 cars have been purchased through the scheme.

To put these numbers in perspective, just over 2 million new cars were sold in the UK in 2012. In total there are about 29 million cars on the road in the UK.

This afternoon at the Royal Automobile Club we will be discussing the take up of low-carbon cars and the progress made in cutting transport CO2 emissions with:

• Lord Deben - Chair, Committee on Climate Change
• Professor Stephen Glaister – Director of the RAC Foundation
• Dr Chris Hope – Judge Business School, University of Cambridge
• Professor Dame Julia King – author of the King Review of low-carbon cars
• Doug Parr - Chief Scientist and Policy Director, Greenpeace UK
• Richard Parry-Jones - Chair, Automotive Council / Chairman, Network Rail

Powering Ahead – which was commissioned jointly by the RAC Foundation and the UK Petroleum Industry Association – analysed the predictions made in 14 other major studies for the take-up of low-carbon cars.

Recognising the varying assumptions made in the other reports, and after discounting the most extreme projections, Ricardo-AEA still found widely differing assessments for the scale of green car sales in 2020:

Technology	Market share in 2020	Volume (based on the number of cars sold in 2012)	Market share in 2030	Volume (based on the number of cars sold in 2012)
Hybrids	5-20%	100,000 – 400,000	20-50%	400,000 – 1m
Plug-in hybrids	1-5%	20,000 – 100,000	15-30%	300,000 – 600,000
Pure battery electric cars	1-5%	20,000 – 100,000	5-20%	100,000 – 400,000
Range-extended electric cars	1-2%	20,000 – 40,000	5-20%	100,000 – 400,000

Note: Figures based on analysis of 14 major studies into the take-up of low-carbon vehicles. In 2012 2,044,000 new cars were sold in the UK. Figures in the table are based on a rounded number of 2,000,000.

The report says:

“In the longer term, the likely mix of technologies is extremely difficult to predict. The speed with which plug-in hybrids and pure electric vehicles achieve significant market shares is highly dependent on their total cost of ownership in comparison to that of more conventional alternatives. This is, in turn, dependent on factors such as oil prices, further battery and fuel cell cost reductions, and government policies.”

However, average new car emissions in 2020 are still likely to meet the EU target of 95 gCO₂/km because of the refinement of existing technologies.

This report concludes that the key to making electric cars a commercial success is a major advance in battery technology. Until then these vehicles are likely to remain too expensive and too impractical to penetrate the mass market.

Eventually there will need to be a step change in the type of cars we drive. To help achieve this, the RAC Foundation believes a target for new car CO2 emissions of nearing 60 g/km is needed for 2025. This challenging goal would help preserve the impetus car manufacturers are already demonstrating in terms of technological advancement. Electric cars might eventually come into their own: but there is no guarantee that they won’t be beaten at their own game by other low-carbon technologies.

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London Bridge is falling down. Well not quite, but TfL moves to repair 8 bridges tunnels & structures in v.poor condition

Congratulations to TfL.

They have admitted the problem and determined to start fixing it.

What are we talking about? The parlous state of some of the road network in the capital. As TfL puts it:

“Due to long-term under-investment, some key tunnels and structures on the TLRN are in very poor condition and represent a real risk to network safety and reliability. Some of the assets already have load restrictions in place and reactive/minor works are no longer sufficient to maintain their function. If not addressed, further restrictions will be essential to maintain safety but at the expense of network reliability.”

To help address this TfL have allocated £200 million to fix things at eight different locations including the Hammersmith Flyover (on which a further £70 million will be spent).

The other places getting treatment are:

• A127 Ardleigh Green Railway Bridge
• A1 Highbury Corner Bridge
• A406 Power Road Bridge
• A1 Upper Holloway Bridge
• A316 Chiswick Bridge
• A406 Fore Street Tunnel
• A406 Woodlands Retaining Wall

As the Foundation director Professor Stephen Glaister put it, the road network is now getting some of the attention long lavished on the under maintained Tube system.

But this news does raise two wider questions. how many locations are there on the TfL network where there are significant problems though perhaps not yet quite at the state of those above? And if there are serious problems on TfL’s network then what exactly is happening at borough level? Is anyone checking?

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New #EV sales figures from the USA

Reported EV sales for March 2013 were nearly twice as high as sales for March 2012, according to newly published data.  Although EVs represented only one in every 200 new light vehicles sold in March, plug-in sales were at an all-time high and included the highest monthly sales for the Nissan Leaf.

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So where does our oil & fuel come from? Should security of supply consern us? #diesel #petrol #oil

The 35 million drivers in the UK are increasingly at the mercy of international traders and global events as North Sea oil reserves shrink.

In 2001 the UK’s high oil production meant we could export 40% of it. This compares to a decade later, where 32% had to be imported.

Our ageing oil refineries are also struggling to meet the demand for diesel caused by the growing number of diesel cars on the road. While the UK is a net exporter of petrol, we are a net importer of diesel, having to bring in as much as an estimated two weeks’ worth of our annual usage.

Currently our biggest sources of imported diesel are other European countries – predominantly the Netherlands, Sweden, Russia and Belgium – and the US.

The changing face of oil and fuel production is revealed in research on the UK oil and fuel markets produced for the RAC Foundation by Deloitte, the business advisory firm.

The work by Deloitte shows that:

• In the past decade the number of UK oil refineries has fallen from nine to seven and of those which remain, all but one has been up for sale within the past three years
• As North Sea oil reserves decline, international treaties will obligate the UK to hold much greater reserves of both oil and refined products and will require significant investment in storage facilities
• In the UK, 75% of all petroleum products are consumed by the transport sector.

The recent debates on security of supply have centred on our gas and food needs, but our inability to meet our oil and roadfuel requirements is a potential time bomb. We are becoming more dependent on international markets and foreign suppliers to keep the nation moving.

Not only are our North Sea oil reserves being depleted, our ageing refineries are not configured to produce the quantity of diesel we use. Retro-fitting these plants would cost many hundreds of millions of pounds; money the industry is unwilling to spend. As the closure of the Coryton refinery in Essex demonstrates, the big players are seriously considering selling up or closing down.

As the global economies recover we will be competing with emerging nations like India and China for scarce resources. Even if we can secure the fuel we need from abroad, unforeseen events – war, politics, weather – all threaten the stability of the supply chain and will have an impact on price.

According to the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders just over two million new cars were bought in the UK in 2012. Of these, 51% were diesel powered and just about 100% of lorries run on diesel, while figures from the DVLA show that of the 28.5 million cars registered in Britain, 19.5 million use petrol and 8.7 million use diesel. The consequences of a major disruption to supply will be enormous.

A decade ago the UK had nine refineries. Since then both Teesside and Coryton have closed. Of the remaining seven refineries, six – Grangemouth, Humber, Lindsey, Pembroke, Milford Haven and Stanlow – have been up for sale in the past three years, Fawley being the exception.

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It won’t happen to me. But what if it did? Road safety in Europe this Easter and the magic number 112

Although nearly two thirds of all European car drivers feel confident to give first aid, only around 18 per cent know exactly what to do if they are the first to arrive at the scene of an accident. This is the result of a survey, EuroTest 2013,  which has been conducted by the German motoring organisation ADAC, its EuroTest partner clubs, and the Red Cross , in 14 European countries.

More than 50% of European road fatalities die within the first few minutes after an accident. This number could be drastically reduced if everyone knew how to provide adequate first aid during those crucial first minutes. So, how good is the first aid knowledge of European car drivers; and how good is yours? Would you know what to do if you came across an accident or were involved in one this holiday?

Just slightly more than one third of the motorists interviewed in the ADAC survey knew that they should ensure their own safety first, whilst less than 50% knew that the accident scene had to be made safe for others – for example, by placing warning triangles and getting those who can be moved safely off the carriageway. Again, just under half, remembered to determine the condition of the casualties or to provide first aid right away. Just over two thirds thought to make an emergency call. This is encouraging, but not good enough considering that only just over half knew the correct European emergency number: 112. Some 40% of the participants indicated another national emergency number, and around 11%  weren’t able to remember any emergency numbers at all.

The survey involved interviews with car drivers: 200 from each of the following countries: Belgium, Denmark, Germany, Finland, France, Italy, Croatia, Austria, Portugal, Switzerland, Serbia, Slovenia, Spain, and the Czech Republic. The interviewees were divided into three age groups (18 to 25; 26 to 59; 60 years and older), with approximately equal proportions of men and women. They had to answer a total of ten questions, including two with practical exercises. There were no pre-defined answers, as in a multiple choice method, and most questions required more than just one answer.

Of all Europeans surveyed, the Germans had the best knowledge of the process of dealing with an emergency: more than 50% would have ensured their own safety, while about 75% would have made the accident scene safe. However, the Finns took the ‘European First Aid Crown’ because they had the confidence to give adequate first aid. About 2% of the interviewees in Finland had attended a first aid course as part of their driving licence training, with a further 75% attending a course for professional reasons. The Finns were also far more sure of themselves than their fellow Europeans with 85% feeling ‘confident to administer first aid’. Moreover, nearly all of them would have called the 112 emergency number for help. Results varied amongst other participant countries with the Czechs excelling at CPR whilst the Spanish performed poorly when trying to mitigate the effects of severe bleeding. In Italy only around 14% of participants said it was essential to try to prevent further accidents at the scene, and just 17% mentioned first aid. Amongst the Austrians there was a worrying lack of knowledge of emergency numbers with only 7% correctly identifying 112 as the correct emergency number.

This survey did not include participants from the UK so if you want to look up the answers before the next one is organised contact the Red Cross or the St John Ambulance. Both organisations regularly run short first aid courses. Guidelines for first aid and what do if an accident occurs on a European road can be found here http://eurotestmobility.com/images/filelib/First%20Aid%20Guidelines%20and%20Response%20chain_3019.pdf

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My car’s connected. No longer does the term wireless refer to your old banger’s radio

So many people are glued to their smartphones and tablets when they take the train, that you almost wonder what people did on the train before the iPhone.  Companies may be trying to sell us larger, better, internet-connected screens for our homes, but we cannot get enough of content on tiny displays, mediocre headphones and trains with flaky internet connections.  The London Underground is introducing Wi-Fi at stations, so at least you can tweet on intermediate stations if you cannot yet in the tunnels. Wi-Fi is also increasingly popular on national rail – although sadly not yet on my line.

This demand for journeys of constant Facebook updates is one of the theories behind the rise in rail travel, suggesting there are those baulking at the comparative internet-free zone that is the interior of the car.

But while people should not be on the phone while driving, ironically their cars increasingly will be.

RAC Motoring Services has recently launched RAC Advance, a device and service which monitors your vehicle as your drive and communicates with the RAC about the condition of the vehicle – so that the first time you know there is a problem is not when you are on the side of the road in a cloud of steam.

Diet and exercise gadgets like the Nike Fuelband and the Fitbit have also transferred to the auto sector, where systems like the Automatic will, by linking with your smartphone, put your car on an eco-driving diet, at the same time monitoring vehicle condition and, when you’ve parked up, reminding you where you’ve left your pride and joy.

The European Union is also pushing a system named eCall, which would automatically alert local emergency services in the event of an accident.  In essence, your car will dial 999 before anyone else gets a chance to.  This would work throughout the EU.

Vehicle monitoring, road safety technologies, telematics-based insurance, music streaming to the stereo, vehicle tracking and systems for car-sharing: the future of the car is definitely internet-enabled. Now, the only question is, can I get a signal?

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‘Welcome, Mr Evan Davis, this is your car parking space’

When time is limited, there is a tendency for people to talk about or to turn the conversation quickly to what they think most important. Phatic exchanges are dismissed so the key issues can be debated. And regardless of comments in the press (Evening Standard 13 March) that he interrupts them, Radio 4 presenter Evan Davis is a master of getting his studio guests to part with their valuable knowledge swiftly. But in a recent (28 February) episode of  The Bottom Line even Mr Davis himself seemed surprised at the speed with which one of his guests began his contribution to a discussion about keeping shoppers on the High Street by highlighting the role of car parking.

For his programme, Davis had lined up Sir Stuart Rose, former Marks and Spencer Chairman; Andy Street, Managing Director of John Lewis PLC; and Berndt Hauptkorn, CEO of Uniqlo Europe. He began by asking them how to go about getting customers to visit ‘bricks and mortar’ shops in such challenging economic times. Immediately, Sir Stuart Rose pitched in on the lower ground floor by describing the poor customer experience many would-be shoppers have in car parks at shopping centres. He said, ‘ …mostly the car parking is pretty grotty. You get down there and it’s difficult to get around, it’s poorly lit, it’s often a bit damp, and quite often it’s expensive.’

Progressing to the upper floors, the giants of retail spent some time debating what might persuade the public to abandon virtual shops in favour of the real thing. They emphasised the need for a ‘good product’, for a bit of retail ‘theatre’, and for shop floor layouts that enable the customer to ‘penetrate huge areas’.

Eventually, Davis interrupted.

‘I just want to finish on car parks’, he said. ‘Why are car parks so shockingly awful? It’s such a no-brainer, it doesn’t cost that much.’

Sir Stuart Rose sensing the limited time left for comment called out, ‘Come on Andy give us more sexy car parks at John Lewis!’, and in typical customers-come-first at JL style, Andy Street responded with, ‘They’ll be coming’.

But he continued, ‘What you really want is not just a general space, you want a sign above the space that says, ‘Welcome, Mr Evan Davis, this is your car parking space’

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Self-assessment tools for the 70+ driver? A new RAC Foundation report investigates

Each year hundreds of thousands of drivers could be making the wrong decision about their ability to drive because they lack the tools or advice to adequately assess their skills behind the wheel.

At the age of 70 – and every three years thereafter – drivers must declare whether or not they are fit to drive. This self-declaration is not made on the basis of any formal medical or driving test, but relies on the judgement of the individual.

While no similar study has been completed in this country, if the picture in the UK is similar to that in the US and Australia then of the estimated 500,000 motorists turning 70 this year, up to 170,000 might stop driving too early and some 50,000 continue driving with poor levels of ability.

There are currently 3.9 million driving licence holders in the UK aged 70 or over.

This number is set to increase dramatically. The Government has predicted that of the UK citizens alive today, around ten million will reach their 100^th birthday.

A new report by TRL (the UK’s Transport Research Laboratory) for the RAC Foundation – Driving Choices for the Older Motorist – analyses data from several countries and finds that self-assessment tools can give older drivers useful feedback about their skills, but they cannot replace the professional assessment of driving abilities. Further validation of self-assessment tools would be needed before they were promoted more widely.

Professor Stephen Glaister, director of the RAC Foundation, said:

“All drivers should regularly consider their fitness to drive, but matters really come to a head when we reach 70 and have to declare that we are fit to be on the roads. In general older drivers have an enviable safety record but it is clear that faced with this critical yes or no decision many motorists simply do not have a realistic view of their capabilities.

“While this will mean there are drivers who are unfit to be on the roads there will be many others who have prematurely hung up their keys. This will have a huge impact on their ability to live an active life, access essential services and take part in social activities.

“The RAC Foundation does not support compulsory retesting at a certain age because this presumes that on reaching a particular birthday people’s physical and mental capacities change radically. But we do see an important need for an ongoing dialogue with motorists and encouragement from officials and the medical profession for all of us to regularly consider our abilities – whatever our age.”

Currently there is no regular or systematic use of self-assessment tools across the UK though some local authorities, including Devon, Suffolk and Sussex promote their use.

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