Number of vehicles in UK hits new high.

The latest (published yesterday) DVLA figures for licensed vehicles make very interesting reading. They show that the number of vehicles on Britain’s roads has reached yet another all-time high. In fact the number of licensed vehicles has increased in every year since World War II except 1991.

The DVLA points out that the rise of the ‘female registered keeper’ has increased by more than two-thirds since 1994. This would tally with the RAC Foundation’s On the Move report published in December which highlighted the increasing number of women drivers and the growing mileage done by women, products of more females in the workplace and the trend for marrying later and having children at a later age.

It also reveals that the number of buses and coaches has fallen steadily over recent years and there are now 7% fewer than at the peak in 2008.

Another illuminating detail is the amount of used vehicles which change hands each year or in the language of the DVLA see a “transfer of keepership”. Clearly the assumption must be that the majority of these are second-hand car sales.

This is the list of summary results from the DVLA publication:

“
At the end of 2012 there were 34.5 million vehicles licensed for use on the roads in Great Britain, of which 28.7 million (83 per cent) were cars.

“Between 2011 and 2012 the total vehicle stock increased by 0.9 per cent. Since the recession of 2008-09 the annual growth in licensed vehicles has slowed but not stopped, increasing by an average of 0.5 per cent per year since 2008, compared with an average of 2.4 per cent a year between 1996 and 2007.

“2.47 million vehicles were registered for the first time in Great Britain in 2012, 3.7 per cent up on the previous year.

“The number of newly registered cars powered by diesel has continued to rise, exceeding 1 million for the first time in 2012. Just over 50 per cent of new cars were diesels, 48 per cent petrol and 1.4 per cent alternatively fuelled vehicles.

“The average CO2 emissions of cars newly registered in 2012 fell to 133 grams per kilometre. This is 3.8 per cent down on 2011 and 25 per cent lower than in 2001, when emissions-based banding of Vehicle Excise Duty for cars began.

“The number of private cars with a female registered keeper has increased by 70 per cent since 1994. In 2012, about 40 per cent of privately registered cars were registered with a female keeper.

“At the end of 2012, the most common car in Great Britain remained the Ford Focus (1.4 million), followed by the Ford Fiesta (1.3 million). The Ford Fiesta had most new registrations, followed by the Vauxhall Corsa and Ford Focus.”

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Declining Road Casualty Rates: Testosterone, transporters or temperature? New @trllib research investigates

Casualty trends and their causes have been long discussed and are notoriously hard to explain. Understanding cause and effect is particularly tricky, a fact recognised by a new TRL report which is helping to shed new light on this complex area.

The report reiterates the often repeated fact that the number of people killed and seriously injured on Britain’s roads has fallen steadily since the 1980s. Deaths and serious injuries have largely fallen in tandem, with a divergence from 2000 onwards (See graph below). Only in 2009 did deaths and serious injuries start to converge.

But the question remains – why are death rates continuing to fall? The fall in road deaths since 2007 is clearly “good news”, but the reasons for this are poorly understood. The TRL work provides some answers indicating that death reductions are largely due to:

• A decrease in overall traffic, especially a large reduction in HGV traffic, and
• A fall in the number of young male drivers, who are typically high risk takers

The report concludes that substantial increases in pedal cycling have tended to lessen the overall reduction. Statistical models developed to look at casualty trends and the effects of secondary safety improvements within cars found that vehicle safety improvements have made a vital contribution to increasing safety throughout the decade, but the reduction of overall fatalities between 2007 and 2010 was not directly related these improvements. The economic downturn from 2007 appears to have had a beneficial effect on driver behaviour, with less speeding and drink driving seen over this time. The effect of weather on the fatality trend as recently proposed by the DfT is less certain, but it was thought possible that people may have driven more cautiously in the progressively colder winters since 2007.

These findings, particularly those relating to young male drivers, chime with those in the RAC Foundation’s recently published ‘On the Move’ report. Questions still remain about data accuracy, due to under-reporting of STATS19. But given that fatality data is thought to be largely accurate, this report is clearly telling us something new.

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Buses: the green way to travel? It depends. CO2 emissions from buses going up not down @greenerjourneys

So buses are the green way to travel are they? Well it clearly depends on how you measure their environmental credentials. The latest figures from the DfT show that fleet average CO2 emissions for buses have risen by about 25% over the past decade (the figures are plotted below alongside similar data for rigid and articulated HGVs). The numbers tell you what is happening but not why. Perhaps buses are getting bigger and heavier because they can carry more people.

Of course what is more important here is the average load factor per bus and the subsequent CO2 emissions per passenger kilometre – rather than vehicle kilometre. Even so it would be interesting to hear what the ‘official’ reason is for the steady increase in bus emissions compared with the steady decline in those for cars.

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Latest snapshot of our travelling lives confirms rise of the female driver.

With little fanfare, yesterday the DfT published the results of the latest National Travel Survey, an annual snapshot of the travelling week of some 20,000 British residents. Here are some of the headline figures:

• In 2011, residents of Great Britain made an average of 958 trips per person and travelled 6,826 miles. The average trip length was 7.1 miles.
• Between 1995/97 and 2011, overall trips rates fell by 12%. Trips by private modes of transport fell by 13% while public transport modes increased by 3%. Walking trips saw the largest decrease.
• By purpose, most of the decline in overall trips rates between 1995/97 and 2011 can be accounted for by a fall in shopping and visiting friends.
• Trips by car (as a driver or passenger) accounted for 64% of all trips made and 79% of distance travelled in 2011.
• On average, females make more trips than males, but males travel much further each year.
• In 2011, 79% of males and 65% of females had a full driving licence.
• Since 1995/97, the average number of car driver trips by men has fallen by 18% and average distance travelled fell by 16%, while car driver trips and distance travelled by women increased by 11% and 23% respectively. Men still drive nearly twice as many miles per year than women.
• Concessionary travel pass take-up in 2011 was 79% of those eligible (82% of females and 76% of males).

The figures seem to back up the trends identified in our On the Move report published last week, namely that women are travelling more by car and men less.

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#Driving costs how much? Price of motoring compared to public transport

Every picture tells a story and the same applies with graphs. The chart below illuminates just how much the running costs of motoring have increased over time, over and above the rate of inflation. It is true that the cost of purchasing a car has fallen in relative terms leaving the ‘all motoring’ index pretty much in line with general inflation. However while a car purchase (such as changing vehicles) is often a discretionary spending choice which can be delayed, running a car tends not to be: you have to fill up the tank and insure your vehicles no matter how severe your financial situation.

The second graph shows how public transport fares have changed. They too have risen above inflation but not by as much as the running costs of cars.

Perhaps the main, depressing, conclusion to be drawn is that all travellers have seen costs shoot up.

Note: data comes from Office of National Statistics CPI charts.

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Q. How many #accountants does it take to build a #road? A. 183

Interesting(?) fact of the day from Hansard.

Stephen Barclay: To ask the Secretary of State for Transport how many members of staff working for her Department had a recognised accountancy qualification in each of the last three years; and how many such staff (a) have the Associate Chartered Accountant (ACA) qualification and (b)are working towards a recognised accountancy qualification. [107989]

Norman Baker: The Department (including its seven executive agencies) has 183 staff with recognised accountancy qualifications, of whom 36 have ACA status. In addition, 25 staff are currently working towards a recognised accountancy qualification.

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Spending on #roads and #rail

It can be a nightmare trying to come up with a reliable and consistent number for how much money is spent by government on managing, maintaining and building roads. We were asked the question again today. Our answer – £9.4 billion – came from one of the tables in the Transport Statistics GB series (which was last updated in November 2011). Of course this does not provide the full breakdown of to whom the money is allocated and how it is spent. For that you really do need to enter the murky world of national and local government finance.

Department for Transport statistics
Modal comparisons
Table TSGB0118
Public Expenditure on Transport by function1: 2005/06-20010/11
				£ million (outturn prices)
		2008/09	2009/10	2010/11
National Roads		3,624	4,311	3,753
	Capital	1,557	2,549	2,198
	Current	2,067	1,761	1,554
Local Roads		5,572	5,776	5,696
	Capital	3,330	3,340	3,425
	Current	2,242	2,437	2,271
Local Public Transport		3,579	3,944	4,914
	Capital	589	1,080	1,880
	Current	2,990	2,864	3,034
Railways		7,018	7,626	7,606
	Capital	6,033	5,630	5,687
	Current	985	1,996	1,920
Other Transport		1,033	1,037	932
	Capital	292	249	250
	Current	741	787	682
UK total		20,827	22,693	22,901
	Capital	11,801	12,848	13,440
	Current	9,026	9,845	9,462
1. Figures taken from Public Expenditure Statistical Analysis, HMT see
http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/pespb_natstats_oct2011.htm
These include public spending by central and local government as well as capital spending by public corporations in the UK. There
are some slight differences between these figures and those from the downloadable HMT tables referenced in other tables due to
differences in the timing  of the data collections.

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#Cars by numbers

The latest vehicle licensing stats have been released by the DVLA and as usual they make for interesting reading for both the pub quiz trivia question setter and the transport expert.

Here is some of what has been revealed:

• At the end of 2011 there were 34.2 million vehicles licensed in Britain
• 28.5 million of these were cars (up from 21.2 million in 1994)
• Year on year the total number of vehicles rose by 0.3%
• During 2011 2.38 million vehicles were registered for the first time (down 36,000 on the previous year)
• At the end of 2011, the most common car in Great Britain was the Ford Focus (1.4 million) followed by the Ford Fiesta (1.3 million)
• In total Ford accounts for 15% of all cars on the roads
• The Ford Fiesta was the most popular new car registered during 2011
• The proportion of new diesel cars registered has risen above 50% for the first time
• Average emissions from all cars registered from 2001 onwards stands at 163gCO2/km down 1.5% on 2010
• The average new car emission rate was 138 gCO2/km
• Since 2001 average new car emissions have fallen by 21%

Most worryingly for the Treasury is the marked percentage increase in registrations of greener cars. In 2011 65% of cars fell into VED bands A to E (up to 140 gCO2/km). This is up from 55% in 2010, thus threatening the flow of money into the Exchequer’s coffers. No wonder the Chancellor made this announcement in the Budget:

“The Government will consider whether to reform VED over the medium term, to ensure that all motorists continue to make a fair contribution to the sustainability of the public finances, and to reflect continuing improvements in vehicle fuel efficiency.”

Mr Osborne also said he would be looking to introduce a monthly direct debit payment option for VED – clearly he is looking at ways to spread the pain which will inevitably follow.

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Reasons for #MOT failure

Ever wondered what causes cars to fail their MOTs? Well here are all the answers, at least as far as the initial fails are concerned, courtesy of VOSA:

	Class 3 & 4: Cars and light vans up to 3,000kg
	Defect category		2010/11
			% of     tests	% of defects
	Body and structure		1.4%	1.9%
	Brakes		10.7%	17.9%
	Driver’s view of the road		7.7%	9.4%
	Driving controls		0.0%	0.0%
	Fuel and exhaust		5.5%	7.2%
	Lighting and signalling		18.6%	28.6%
	Motor tricycles and quadricycles		0.0%	0.0%
	Reg plates and VIN		1.2%	1.3%
	Road wheels		0.4%	0.5%
	Seat belts		1.7%	2.1%
	Steering		3.2%	3.4%
	Suspension		11.9%	16.9%
	Towbars		0.1%	0.1%
	Tyres		8.0%	10.0%
	Overall Initial Failure Rate		39.8%	-
	Defects per Initial Test Failure		-	3.13

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DfT predicts relentless rise in #traffic and #congestion

Enjoy it while you can. Believe it or not Britain’s roads have been getting quieter over the past few years, not least because of the economic downturn. The volume of traffic peaked at 314 billion vehicle miles per annum in 2007 and has since slid to 303 billion miles (2010 figure) – the lowest level since 2003.

But the latest official prediction – slipped out by the Department for Transport earlier this year with no great fanfare – suggests the recent drop is a mere blip and that growth will soon be resumed. The recently published National Transport Model Road Forecasts 2011 concludes that:

1)    By 2035 road traffic will be 44% higher than in 2010

2)    Despite the increase in traffic, CO2 emissions are set to decline by 9% from 2010 levels because of improvements in the fuel efficiency of the car fleet and the use of biofuels.

The DfT also looked at high and low travel demand scenarios. Under the former traffic could increase by as much as 55% by 2035, while even in the latter case the number of miles travelled would go up by 34%.

Much of the projected growth in traffic can be put down to population growth (though the demographic profile of the population is also important – older people tend not to drive as much as younger people). However the forecast dismisses the notion that individuals have reached a limit in their demand to travel by car. It foresees a time post-recession when car demand per person will again rise at around 1.2% per annum between 2015 and 2025 (a rate similar to the 1990s) and for the ten years after the growth will still be positive but will fall to an annual average of 0.5%. In the confines of Whitehall, therefore, the notion that we have reached ‘peak car’ is fanciful.

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