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Another day, another fuel price story.

The news late yesterday that European Union anti-trust regulators had raided offices of energy giants BP, Royal Dutch Shell and Norway’s Statoil firmly took the spotlight off the pricing of petrol and diesel at motorway service stations and placed it further up the supply chain, looking at allegations of oil price fixing going back more than a decade.

In theory, this was an area which the Office of Fair Trading in the UK should have considered as part of the terms of reference in its call for evidence into the road fuel market, the results of which were published earlier this year.

In fact the OFT report did pass comment on the matter, but only briefly:

“We also asked for information on whether speculation or manipulation of oil spot and futures markets or inaccurate oil or wholesale road fuel price reporting could be leading to higher pump prices. While these issues could potentially raise serious concerns, we have not received any credible evidence to suggest that such concerns are arising and therefore do not propose to carry out any further investigation at this time.”

And this is the nub of the matter. Given that the oil industry is so fiendishly complex, involving billions of dollars, millions of trades, hundreds of thousands of people and scores of countries, it is, in short, an opaque operation, at least to the outsider. Trying to elicit information and ‘evidence’ into its finer workings are no small matters. Suspicion of wrong-doing or manipulation is one thing, but gaining proof of misdemeanour is quite another. And of course we do not know whether these companies have actually done anything wrong – let us not forget that oil firms are not charities. They invest huge sums of money in what they do and rightly expect a return on that investment.

But that return can only come from activity within the rule of law. And it is imperative that those who enforce the rules fully understand what is happening. If nothing else this investigation should provide some transparency into this area of business and show companies that the regulators are on top of their game. It might also – assuming nothing untoward is going on – rebuild some trust between motorists and the firms which supply the fuel they fill up with.

The OFT’s January report concluded:

“Overall, on the basis of the evidence collected, it appears that competition in the UK road fuels sector is working relatively effectively. The significant rises in petrol and diesel prices that have occurred over the past 10 years have largely been caused by higher crude oil prices and increases in taxation. We have not found any evidence that competition problems have led to increases in pump prices and the margins being made by UK refiners, wholesalers and retailers do not appear to have contributed as significantly to increases in pump prices.”

Yet the reassurance that pump prices are the subject of competitive retail pricing will be of little reassurance to millions of drivers if the underlying components of those prices – the cost of oil, but also tax – are excessive and, potentially far worse, illegally inflated.

Robert Halfon MP said this morning:

“Last year, in a debate that I pressed for, Parliament voted unanimously for an investigation into the oil market. These latest allegations underline why that must happen urgently in the UK. High oil prices are crushing families across Britain. Motorists are being taken for a very expensive ride.”

He, and others like Fair Fuel UK and the RAC, are right. There needs to be more investigation, even if only to offer reassurance. Perhaps this move by the EU – and for all the bad press Europe is getting at the moment there will be few who will complain of this continental intervention – will galvanise those at the OFT to reconsider their earlier conclusions, though it is would seem likely that action this side of the Channel will very depend on action on the other side.

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Clearly if a policy is good enough to be announced once, it is good enough to be announced twice.

I would not want to be dismissive of the stories in the media about the government looking at ways of making data about fuel prices at motorway service stations more transparent to drivers i.e. putting up signs with the information before drivers pull off the carriageway. Indeed, that is very positive. But why, one wonders, is there all this fuss today, because this is not just old news, it is positively ancient.

The announcement actually came in the Budget back on 20 March when the Chancellor, or at least the Budget document, said:

“In response to OFT recommendations, the Government will work with motorway service areas and other relevant bodies to improve the availability and visibility of motorway fuel price information for motorway users.”

The Office of Fair Treading reference relates to the organisation’s report, published at the end of January, into the workings of the petrol and diesel fuel sector which concluded that overall the market was working well but raised concerns about the gulf between high street fuel prices and those found on the motorways:

“While these differences may be explained to some extent by the higher costs associated with running motorway forecourts, the OFT is concerned that drivers are not able to view prices until they have pulled into the service station. It has therefore asked the Department for Transport to consider introducing new road signs that would display service station petrol and diesel prices for motorway drivers.”

The conclusion must be that this matter has become news again today because a) at Budget time there were plenty of other stories vying for headlines and b) this latest announcement is being pushed by the Number 10 policy unit and hence the Prime Minister.

Here at the RAC Foundation we would like to think that we – alongside campaigners like Robert Halfon MP and Fair Fuel UK – helped push fuel prices up the political agenda through our transport poverty work and this is part of why the PM is making a song and dance of the matter now (that and the realisation that drivers have about 35 million votes between them).

Of course, there are only so many times the same policy can be announced before drivers demand to see the outcome. Time for words to be turned into action.

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This morning the media has – rightly – hailed the good news that the rise in fuel duty planned for 1 September has been abandoned.

But what exactly was the size of the rise due to have been?

Much of the media has gone for a 3p rise, and indeed were doing so well ahead of yesterday’s statement. Yet in the Budget 2013 document released yesterday by the Treasury, the Chancellor said the rise foregone was in fact 1.89p (P53) to which VAT would have been added:

“Budget 2013 announces that the 1.89 pence per litre fuel duty increase that was planned for 1 September 2013 will be cancelled. This means that fuel duty will have been frozen for nearly three and half years, the longest duty freeze for over 20 years.”

In the grand scheme of things there isn’t much – in absolute rather than percentage terms – between the two, but where might the confusion have come about?

The previous increase was due on 1January 2013 and this was abandoned completely. The amount of this increase was set to be 3.02p – 3p to you and me.

The next cost of living increase was due for 1 April this year but had already been delayed to 1 September. It was this planned increase that the Chancellor shelved completely yesterday. Prior to yesterday no figure had been set for the level of the hike. All that had been said was that the amount would be confirmed in Budget 2013. And it was, but only so it could then be announced that it was never going to be implemented.

According to the Fair Fuel Stabiliser that the Chancellor introduced in Budget 2012 future annual rises in the level of fuel duty would be in line with inflation so long as the price of a barrel of crude oil was above £45 a barrel – it is currently much higher than that. If the price of oil should fall below £45 over a sustained period then the rise in the rate of fuel duty would be inflation plus 1p per litre.

So where does the 1.89p quoted yesterday derive from? Earlier this month we heard that the cost of living as measured by RPI (and this was the benchmark figure outlined in the original FFS formula) was about 3.3%. If you take 3.3% of the current rate of duty of 57.95p per litre you end up with 1.85p; markedly close to the figure of 1.89p mentioned in the Budget yesterday.

Of course this is all academic now because the rise did not go ahead, but while yesterday was undeniably a good day for drivers, it was not quite as good as many of us might have thought.

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By Professor Stephen Glaister, director of the RAC Foundation.

The Budget marks a sad end to a period of keen anticipation for those of us who recognise the vital importance of a reform that would deliver the road infrastructure needed to cope with growing population and economic recovery.

A year ago the Prime Minister recognised the problem and announced an aspiration for pension funds and sovereign wealth funds to step in and provide the necessary capital. Civil service reviews into national roads strategy and the feasibility of new funding and financing models were duly completed in the autumn. But in the Autumn Statement announcements were delayed until today’s Budget.

Except today there weren’t any.  The Budget confirmed that the government has no plans to reform Vehicle Excise Duty in the life of this Parliament. That essentially kicks the whole subject into touch.

So what are we left with? There is a possibility that a discussion document on road funding and financing may be published in the summer. There is a possibility that some of the new increased capital spending plans by £3 billion per annum might be for roads: but it does not start until 2015-16, there will be other pressing claims on it and it only amounts to a ten percent increase on current levels.

Meanwhile, there remains nothing for the private sector to invest in.  There are some welcome new government funds for maintenance and to relieve pinch points—but there is no proper roads strategy and no committed funding to go with one. We still await a National Policy Statement on roads and railways. We await a promised National Transport Policy. The crucial A14 languishes whilst  local controversy over tolls are resolved and a complex local funding packages is negotiated.

The Budget announces “a focus on delivery … an enhanced cadre of commercial specialists in Infrastructure UK who will be deployed into infrastructure projects across Government, and the establishment by the summer of tough new Infrastructure Capacity Plans to drive forward progress in key Government Departments…” So what has been going on over the last year?

It’s all vague talk. Without institutional reform, including some way to bring in new money nothing much is going to happen. Our road network will become less and less adequate for a growing, civilised county.

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Following concerns expressed by the automotive industry, the Chancellor has reintroduced tax incentives for ultra-low-emission company cars by creating two tax bands for vehicles with tailpipe CO2 emissions of 0-50 g/km and 51-75 g/km. Even better, this means that they will not be directed at a particular technology (electric vehicles) as they were previously, but be technology-neutral.

Furthermore, he has announced that Company Car Tax rates will be announced three years in advance. This is great news for fleet operators since the average length of ownership of company cars is 3 to 4 years; under the new regime, operators will therefore have longer-term certainty when making vehicle purchasing decisions.

This is the relevant section in Budget 2013:

2.152 Company Car Tax (CCT): ultra low emission vehicles (ULEVs) – From April 2015, two new CCT bands will be introduced at 0-50 grams/kilometre of carbon dioxide (g/km CO2) and 51-75 g/km CO2. (Finance Bill 2013)

2.153 The appropriate percentage of the list price subject to tax for the 0-50 g/km CO2 band will be 5 per cent in 2015-16, and 7 per cent in 2016-17. The appropriate percentage of the list price subject to tax for the 51-75 g/km CO2 band will be 9 per cent in 2015-16 and 11 per cent in 2016-17. In 2017-18 there will be a 3 percentage point differential between the 0-50 and 51-75 g/km CO2 bands, and between the 51-75 and 76-94 g/km CO2 band. In 2018-19 and 2019-20 there will be a 2 percentage point differential between the 0-50 and 51-75 g/km CO2 bands and between the 51-75 and 76-94 g/km CO2 bands. (Finance Bill 2013 and future finance bills) (57)

2.154 In future years CCT rates will be announced three years in advance. The Government will review these incentives for ULEVs in light of market developments at Budget 2016, to inform decisions on CCT from 2020-21 onwards.

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If the Chancellor was looking for reasons to freeze or cut fuel duty he need only look at two sets of data:

1) The work on motoring poverty recently carried out by the RAC Foundation.

2) The current pump prices which are nearing record highs despite a supermarket price war.

The latest fuel prices are as follows:

 

Current price

(18th March 2013)

Record high

 

Unleaded 137.6p 142.17p (16th April 2012)
Diesel 144.8p 148.04p (16th April 2012)
Oil (Brent crude per barrel) $109 $148 (11th July 2008)

The current rate of duty is 57.95p per litre of petrol and diesel. It has been at this level since March 2011.

As a proportion of the price of unleaded fuel, tax (fuel duty + VAT) makes up 59% of the total.

A proposed 3.02p per litre increase in the level of fuel duty was scheduled to take place on 1st January 2013. In the Autumn Statement 2012 the Chancellor cancelled this increase.

The next fuel duty increase was scheduled for 1st April 2013 but that was postponed (also in the Autumn Statement 2012) to 1st September 2013. It has not been formally announced what the level of this increase will be.

Two weeks ago the RAC Foundation published analysis on the impact of high motoring costs on the poorest ten percent of car-owning households, showing just how deeply they are mired in motoring poverty.

Our work showed that roughly 800,000 car-owning households are spending at least 27% of their disposable income on buying and running a car.

Of a total maximum weekly expenditure of £167, these households saw £44 go on vehicle related purchasing and operating costs, including:

£16 on petrol and diesel.

£8.30 on insurance.

The complete breakdown of these figures, plus figures for other income groups is available here.

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By Professor Stephen Glaister, director of the RAC Foundation.

If the Financial Times is to be believed (Wednesday 6th March, p3) the government just lost its resolve on a reform of vital importance to the economic recovery: road infrastructure. Whilst it decides which way to go it should immediately end the delay with getting on with using conventional funding for some crucial schemes such as the improvement of the A14 and A303. And if it looking for other infrastructure improvements that will repay their investment costs many times over there is a long list of other languishing road schemes.

The government has a fixation about achieving economic growth. So would any government at the moment, for the simple reason that the arithmetic dictates that without growth the deficit cannot be eliminated. Vince Cable hinted at such a thing on this morning’s Today programme on Radio 4 just after 8am.

This government has also acknowledged that historic under-spend on capacity and maintenance, growing population and the need to serve economic growth all point towards a need for more resources for infrastructure. The big question is who is going to pay for it?

In March 2012 the Prime Minister outlined this infrastructure problem and specifically mentioned the need for more strategic roads. He pointed out that pension funds and sovereign wealth funds have lots of capital available to invest in long-lived infrastructure like this.  He mentioned the analogy with the water industry, which has achieved a massive investment in order to deliver more and better quality water with no burden on the taxpayer. Why not do the same for strategic roads?

There was a snag: the Prime Minister explicitly said he was not considering introducing charging for using existing roads, only new capacity. But there are few opportunities to build self-funding, distinct new roads in Britain. What is needed is better maintenance and capacity enhancement of the existing network: so where was the money going to come from to repay the investors? Water users pay for all the water they use and it is that which funds the industry’s infrastructure.

This fundamental flaw in the argument was quickly spotted and the Prime Minister commissioned the Treasury and the Department for Transport to carry out a “Feasibility Study” into options for correcting it.  This duly reported by the end of November.

But it seems that nothing offered found favour: the hoped-for announcement was missing from the 2012 Autumn Statement. There was only a promise that something would be announced before the 2013 Budget (20th March). It is rumoured that there was a section in the Coalition Government’s “half term review” document but that was dropped at the last minute.

Now, apparently, nothing will appear until the summer of 2013 at the earliest.

It is all very difficult. If there is going to be significant private investment there has to be a significant new cash flow to service the debt. There has been speculation in the press that this could come from some form of new charge for access to parts of the system, perhaps similar to a scheme proposed in a think piece by Brian Wadsworth and published by the RAC Foundation. Yet the government knows that with 35 million motorists amongst the electorate it cannot risk creating a perception that a significant proportion will be losers. To avoid this it would probably be necessary to sweeten the pill with an offsetting reduction in one or both of the main road taxes: fuel duty and the tax disc (VED).

In a world where “there is no government money” that is going to be difficult to achieve. But maybe the growth imperative will persuade government to do this.

For motorists that could turn out to be an attractive deal: better, less congested roads and less of the money they pay now being siphoned off the pay for other areas of general government expenditure. But judgement on that must await the detail of a firm proposal.

Whilst this hand-wringing is going on nothing much is happening. Although there have been worthwhile investments in solving “pinch-points” some really urgent, growth-critical schemes continue to languish.

The most important of these is the improvement of the inadequate A14. This road serves the east coast ports (Felixtowe and Harwich) and travels west past Cambridge and Huntingdon towards the industrial heart of the country. It is recognised as being of European significance, part of the Trans European Network. A good scheme for rebuilding it was developed over a decade with much effort and expense. There is considerable support amongst local communities, commerce and industry.

Yet, at the last minute, the Coalition Government cancelled the scheme and gave up planning consents in the 2010 Spending Review on the grounds that it was “unaffordable”. Since then the government has been feeling its way towards re-instating a scheme. First there was a consultation, the “A14 Challenge”. Then, before the response to the consultation was fully complete the government announced a new plan involving three-way funding: central government, local communities and tolls.

The new proposal is on much the same line of route as the abandoned one but is physically more complex and seems likely to cost no less. Raising the required funding from a number of local sources, all financially hard-pressed, is going to take a long time to negotiate. The tolling proposal is controversial with the locals.

The RAC Foundation is not opposed to charging road users, if that is part of a coherent, national-scale package including adjustment to road taxes. But the free-standing proposal for the A14, whilst interesting, in practice looks like a recipe for endless further delay—and it conflicts with both the wider national road funding policy and the new lorry charging scheme which is currently in Parliament.

A piecemeal approach also risks the creation of a postcode lottery. Why should users of this economically strategic piece of road pay extra to drive along it when city bankers in their trophy cars can zoom down to the coast along the A3 and through the new Hindhead Tunnel without extra financial hindrance?

It is now two and a half years since the government cancelled this crucial scheme and began wondering what to put in its place. The hybrid funding scheme it is trying to broker will likely cause more delay. Pending a resolution to its confusion about whether and how to reform national road funding as a whole, it should simply stop prevaricating on the A14 and get going using the conventional exchequer funding method.

There is a broader point.  As Vince Cable points out, so long as investments are made in schemes with a good rate of return they will eventually cost less than nothing. Unless the government is confident that it can agree and implement innovative funding mechanisms for roads soon it should stop wasting time and get on with the broader, economically justifiable national roads programme using conventionally funding methods.

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By Professor Stephen Glaister, director of the RAC Foundation.

The ways in which English Local Authorities receive their money – Local Government Finance – is horribly complicated. Almost nobody understands it in detail and few people care. And the current policy of devolution is going to make the muddle a whole lot worse.

We should give the subject more attention: it directly affects the levels of local services we all worry about: from library provision, through street cleaning and refuse collection, schools and housing to the number of potholes we have to endure and the amount there is to spend on adult and child social care.

The Public Accounts Committee is a powerful (and once much-feared) cross party committee of backbench MPs. Their role is to scrutinise the way government spends national taxpayers’ money, acting on behalf of Parliament and us all.  It applies “value-for-money criteria which are based on economy, effectiveness and efficiency.” On Tuesday 5th February it published an informative little report that illustrates the fundamental inconsistencies in current policy on devolution. It is an overview of funding for local transport.

The days when local people decided on the level of service they would like and then voted to pay their local authority the necessary money directly are long gone.  Much of the money now comes from grants from central government via departments such as the Department of Communities and local Government and the Department for Transport.  And government capping of local domestic taxes limits the freedom councils have over the income they are supposed to be able to raise from the people who use their services.

This degree of centralised control over local community income and spending is quite unlike anything to be found elsewhere in the developed world. It is Coalition Government policy to further devolve things from central government to the people. The trouble is that, in practice, the temptation is always to devolve the responsibilities and statutory duties without devolving control over the cash that must go with them. This can create misalignment of incentives, lack of transparency and poor accountability for national taxpayers’ money.
Tuesday’s report makes some worrying observations. For instance the Department for Transport gives grants according to a formula for the purposes of roads maintenance and other transport projects. But there is no attempt to prevent local authorities choosing to spend the money in any way they choose. Worse, they seem to have no way of keeping a record of how the money is actually spent. Nor are minimum quality standards set down. In practice it seems inevitable that the pincers of reduced total income and ballooning statutory obligations (environmental and social services particularly) will force many councils to spend less and less on roads maintenance, whatever local people would prefer.

So what national objectives is this ‘transport grant’ supposed to be meeting?

We have long-established, legally constituted and democratically accountable local authorities.  Now, through a somewhat mysterious process the government has encouraged the creation of Local Enterprise Partnerships. These vary in geographical scope and typically cover several local authorities; some overlap and some areas are not covered at all.  It is unclear how professional or administrative support is to be provided. It seems that the nitty-gritty of financial audit, accountability for funds and democratic accountability will reside with existing local authorities, but how will these channel though to the Local Enterprise Partnerships? Then, on top of all this it is intended that there should be thirty-nine new non-statutory ‘transport bodies’ to execute transport policy at the local level. The Public Accounts Committee also had a view on this.

When launching the report the committee Chair remarked:

“We are not convinced that government has thought through the risks of devolving more control over the funding of major transport projects to a local level. For example, the Department is confident that local bodies will naturally cooperate to fund and implement projects. We believe this confidence may well be misplaced.

“The risk is that local transport bodies, under severe financial pressure, will not take sufficiently strategic and joined-up decisions, threatening national or regional transport funding objectives.”

This is surely a realistic assessment. Shortages of money and special parochial interests will cause endless strife in and amongst disparate bodies that may have different party political loyalties, and little dedicated professional support and no democratic mechanisms for resolving disputes.

The Committee also raised an issue that has not been satisfactorily addressed since the Coalition Government closed the Regional Development Agencies: “We asked how large infrastructure projects which span the boundaries of several transport bodies would go ahead and who would consider these wider regional or subnational needs. The Department considered that common sense would prevail and maintained that there were examples where local bodies had come together to pool funding across boundaries.” This is a serious worry. Central government is responsible for the strategic road and rail infrastructure. Local authorities look after the infrastructure in their own back yards. But there are major items of Regional importance which now risk falling between the two and which will cover too big a geographical span to be dealt with by the new transport bodies.

During the evidence sessions another enormously muddled subject was raised: the extent to which it is right, or even legal, for local authorities to seek to make good their failing general budgets by increasing car parking charges. They can make charges for their on-street street parking as part of a policy to manage traffic and, generally, any net revenue must be spent on transport purposes. But they cannot increase on-street parking charges with the primary objective of raising revenues: that would be a tax without a mandate on one particular activity.

But Local authority charges for off-street carparking is not restricted in the same way: it is just like any other provision of off-street parking (by the public or private sector). It was revealed in the Committee’s evidence session how much pressure has been applied by central government on local government to raise additional funds by increasing parking charges in order to make good reducing central grant: another example of the chaos and obscurity that surrounds the funding of local government.

The overall conclusion is clear. Devolution is fine, but the money must go with the duties and powers. If government continues to try to pass on one without the other democratic and fiscal accountabilities become broken And over many decades and all over the world we have learned through bitter experience that bodies responsible for cash and executive decisions must have a proper legal constitution and be subject to effective, independent audit. Otherwise things inevitably end in tears.

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So there we have it. The UK fuel market is a healthy beast, at least according to the OFT report just published following last year’s call for evidence.

To be fair researchers were unlikely ever to have reached any other conclusion.

The big problem is not what is happening in the fuel market, but what is perceived to be going on. It is a sign of the opaque nature of the whole market that the OFT had to delve into it in the first place. Its murky nature has long meant that drivers have been distrustful of it. But today the OFT has identified the real causes of motorists’ misery at the pumps: the chancellor and oil prices, not the machinations of the wholesale market for refined products.

While all the attention has been on the profits being made after petrol and diesel leave the refinery gates, this report reminds us that the biggest price drivers are taxation and the cost of oil. As it stands George Osborne is currently taking 60% of the pump price in fuel duty and VAT, and a barrel of Brent crude retails at the stubbornly high level of $114.

The Foundation would urge garages to provide a breakdown on their till receipts which reveals to drivers exactly how much the Treasury is taking.

The OFT report found “very little evidence” to support the idea of so-called rocket and feather pricing where pump prices rise quickly in line with wholesale price increases but significantly lag any decline in wholesale prices.

The watchdog does however make reference to the high prices charged at motorway service stations. While accepting that these prices might be associated with the higher costs involved in these sorts of operations it wants drivers to be forewarned of the prices before they actually pull off the motorway, possibly by new signs erected by the DfT.

The OFT has also found no evidence that the increasing dominance of supermarket forecourts has been detrimental to drivers. While there have been closures of independent retailers this has not had a negative impact on motorists, in fact the UK has – pre-tax – some of the cheapest road fuel prices in Europe. Research submitted to the OFT by the RAC Foundation showed that 97 per cent of car-owning households were within ten miles of a supermarket forecourt.

None of this will necessarily come as much relief to hard-pressed drivers who are still paying near-record prices for petrol and diesel, but at least it shines a light on where the ‘blame’ for high prices really lies: not, as many of us might have suspected, at the door of the retailers and wholesalers.

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Diesel price – 140.77p (record high 142.17p April 2012)

Petrol price – 132.95 (record high 148.04p April 2012)

Fuel duty and VAT account for about 60% of the pump price of both petrol and diesel.

There are 35 million drivers and 28 million cars in Great Britain. Of the cars, 19 million are petrol and 9 million diesel.

There were 37,000 petrol stations in 1970 but less than 9,000 today.

RAC Foundation work shows that 87% of UK car-owning households are within 5 miles of a supermarket petrol station. 97% of UK car-owning households are within 10 miles of a supermarket petrol station.

According to work done for the RAC Foundation by the consultancy Deloitte, the UK is now a net importer of crude oil and refined diesel. The reasons are two-fold:

1)     The UK’s North Sea oil reserves have shrunk steadily.

2)     Overall, UK refineries are configured to produce more petrol than diesel, however the demand for diesel has grown over time and the cost of ‘retro-fitting’ our refineries would be prohibitively expensive. Therefore we need to import some diesel to meet our needs.

The Deloitte work shows that ten years ago there were nine UK refineries. Today there are seven. Of these seven, all but one have been up for sale in the past three years.

In 2011 the average household expenditure was £484 per week. £65.70 of this was on transport, 14% of the total.

OFT terms of reference:

  • whether reductions in the price of crude oil are being reflected in falling pump prices
  • whether supermarkets’ and major oil companies’ practices may be making it more difficult for independent retailers to compete with them
  • whether there is a lack of competition between fuel retailers in some remote communities in the UK, and
  • whether concerns about price co-ordination and the structure of road fuels markets identified by other national competition authorities are relevant in the UK.

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