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The world’s oil supply is not running out according to a major new study of 800 oilfields by the Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA). They have concluded that rates of decline are only at 4.5% per year, which is almost half of the rate previously believed, which supports their conclusion that oil output will continue to rise over the next decade.
The report’s author Peter Jackson said ‘We will be able to grow supply to well over 100 million barrels per day by 2017.” Current oil world output is around 87 million barrell’s a day. Many will ask where this leaves theories on peak oil. Those at CERA conclude that world oil production will peak as demand is weakened by taxation and government efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Essentially politics, not geology is identified as the limiting factor.
The research and theory on the future of oil supply and demand can be interestingly compared with the human and current story of oil consumption in Venezuela reported in today’s Guardian.
In Venezuela, which has the seventh largest oil reserve in the world, the world where oil costs $100 a barrel is literally and metaphorically a million miles away. A litre of fuel costs 0.7p, meaning that filling the tank of a large car costs a total of 42p, which is equal to the cost of a cup of coffee in the area. When exchange rates are taken into account petrol is 45 times cheaper than in Britain, due to Government subsidy introduced in the 1940s. As a result people view cheap fuel as a birthright, which is also the case in other fuel producing countries such as Burma, Indonesia, Iran and Nigeria. Revolts are likely if prices rise. Domestic consumption in Venezuela has soared to 780,000 barrels a day and the subsidy costs the Government around £4.5 billlion annually. The consumer boom has doubled the number of cars on Venezuela’s roads and has caused significant pollution and grid lock.
This example provides a stark illustration of the CERA research findings working in todays world. It would certainly appear that politics rather than production drives use and consumption of fuel and in a future as the challenges of global warming become more pressing and prominent, theories of peak oil are likely to be less relevant to the debate than geo-political realities.
Source(s):
The Times Friday 18th January 2008
The Guardian Friday 18th January 2008
World soyabean prices have climbed to a record level this week, partly because farmers in the US and Asia have been growing corn, palm oil and other crops to supply the biofuel industry. Poor harvests in Latin America and rising demand in China have added to price pressures.
One commentatorsaid ‘It is finally a trade-off between filling stomachs and filling diesel tanks in cars and trucks’ (Ashok Gulati, Director of the International Food Policy Institute)
Soyabeans are a staple product for Asian cuisine especially for the poor, as it is a key source of protein. For many Indonesians, a piece of fermented soyabean cake is often their only source of protein and last year soya products accounted for 22% of Indonesians’ protein intake, excluding rice, according to Government data.
Authorities in the countries effected are starting to take action to contain the effects of the price surge by importing lower quality soya-beans and prioritising debate on the issue, but currently producers are directly passing increased costs onto consumers.
This is just one example of how finding new ways to power vehicles is starting to have tangible unintended consequences. As the biofuel debate progresses it is essential that the overall impact of their use is considered and kept under review.
Source: Financial Times Friday 18th January 2008
What will happen when the new ‘multi-tasking’ generation are old enough to buy and drive a car? This was one of the questions that came to mind after reading an article in Wednesday’s Guardian, which discussed new research from Childwise, which looks at how children make use of their time.
The study of 1,150 five to sixteen year olds found that 79% of children had a TV in their own room and 58% watched TV during the evening meal. It also found that children, due to the greater availability of multi-media were not paying one activity their whole attention, and could be found flicking channels, surfing the web and chatting to friends all at the same time.
This new approach to activity management may well have implications beyond childhood. If the adults of tommorrow are more able to multi-task will it mean that they can juggle all the distractions in a car, such as sat navs, children, radios and phones? Or will it mean that they do not pay sufficient attention to any part of the driving activity?
We will obviously have to wait and see what impact of these new trends in activity attention, but if a future contains cars that drive themselves (as has been recently reported and argued) the new generation of drivers are likely to feel right at home in what will be a multi-media rich environment.
Source: The Guardian 16th January 2008 – Life through a lense: how Britain’s children eat, sleep and breathe TV
The hot trend for long fringes is the latest in car distraction to be aware of according to a new survey by the Car Insurance Company Sheila’s Wheels.
Their survey found that as many as 67% of women have a hairstyle that can fall in their eyes when at the wheel. Of the 1,000 drivers polled, only 50% said they tied their hair-back before driving and 1% admitted to having an accident, near miss or a sudden manoeuvre after their vision was impaired by their hair. A survey of hair fashions found that women in the North East were least worried about their hair fashion, while the most practical styles were found in the South West.
Drivers are now much more aware of how actions in the car (i.e. mobile phones, sat navs, stereos) can distract them from the job at hand. Hair styles and high heels, might seem run of the mill fashion decisions, but they also have implications when taken behind the wheel which should not be overlooked.
Source: The Mail Monday 14th January 2008
Local french car number plates are set to be replaced with anonymous alternatives in 2009 inline with EU legislation, much to the annoyance of residents in the regions.
Currently a ’75′ plate identifies drivers as Parisian, a ‘23′ plate shows that they come from more rural parts of central France and the list goes on… Officials believe that anonomising plates will bring relief to drivers, as they will no longer get undesirable reactions from other drivers based on where they live. Instead France’s fierce regional identities have denounced the idea as unhelpful, as local plates are thought to help defuse road rage between local drivers.
The use of cars is often thought to reduce community cohesion, as they allow people to travel long distances away from where they live, so the value of local number plates in France provides an interesting and alternative view. According to an article in the press today it appears that bumper stickers declaring words such as ‘62 is us’ will be displayed alongside the anonomous new number plates when they hit the streets next year.
Source: The Guardian Monday 14th January 2008
More and more London workers are deciding to move nearer their places of work so as to avoid long, stressful and expensive commute.
Previously, people felt that their expensive and tiring commute was traded off with lower rent or mortgage repayments, but now, the tables have turned.
Living in Central London – the trade-off;
Benefits:
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Saving on travel (Tube and train)
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Improved energy levels with later starts
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Improved fitness with walking to work
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Savings on congestion charge (although from October 2008, if new proposals are agreed the residents discouny will no longer apply)
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Closer to entertainment
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Can socialise after work without worrying about the long journey home at night
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Shorter commute
Costs:
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Higher rent or mortgage
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Probably have to downsize
When the benefits are presented they really are tempting to take up, so will the suburbs empty out? Watch this space…
Source: The London Lite 5th December 2007
Whilst chocolate may prove to be a menace for our waistlines this Christmas, our mouthwatering companion could be the saviour the environment has been searching for…
Biodiesel can be made using chocolate! It’s true! But unfortunately the extra ingredients required mean that is not suitable for drinking at the pump. Sorry.
Source: The Independent 6th December 2007
The alcohol content in after dinner treats at Christmas time can push you over the drink drive limit the car insurer Esure warns.
A poll conducted by ICM Research revealed that motorists just don’t think about the food they have eaten when considering whether not they should drive, but focus solely on how many glasses they have head.
Alcohol units per serving of the following Christmas treats are;
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Christmas pudding – 0.7 units
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Brandy butter – 0.3 units
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Sherry Trifle – 0.7 units
The drink drive limit equates to approximately 4 units of alcohol for men and 4 units for women, but as it is never possible to calculate the impact drinks have on your blood alcohol content the best advice is to never drink and drive.
With the above in mind, the average Christmas dinner with a small glass of wine could mean you are at the alcohol limit already. So if in doubt leave the car keys at home and enjoy festivities without getting behind the wheel.
Source: Daily Mail 6th December 2007
Fewer people in the UK are turning to motorcycling according to new statistics released by the DfT today. The report finds that;
- Fewer than 3% of households own a motorcycle
- The number of people taking a motorbike fell to the lowest level since 2001/02
- The motorcycle ownership rate in Great Britain is lower than any other European country
Despite the decline in motorbike ownership, devoted motorbike users are keeping their machines in good working order. 946,000 motorcycles went through an MOT test in 2006/07, a large increase in comparison to previous years mainly due to the increasing number of mopeds and scooters being tested. 83% of motorcycles now pass the MOT test, with faulty lights remaining the most common cause of MOT failure.
Motorcycle safety remains a cause for concern as the relative risk of a motorcycle riser being killed or seriously injured per kilometre travelled was 51 times higher in 2006 than for car drivers. This risk may have lead to the reduction in people willing to taking up motorcycling, but despite these safety concerns it is important to remember that careful motorbike use can provide a useful congestion busting, environmentally friendly alternative to the car.
COMMENT: PUBLIC ACCOUNTS COMMITTEE REPORT, EVASION OF VEHICLE EXCISE DUTY
January 22, 2008 in Comment | by elizabethdainton | Leave a comment
Commenting on the Public Accounts Committee’s report, which found that Vehicle Excise Duty evasion has risen to 5% in 2006, and that rising numbers of vehicles are not on the DVLA’s databases at all, Sheila Rainger, acting director of the RAC Foundation said:
“VED evasion isn’t just about money – motorists driving without tax are also more likely to be driving uninsured and without an MOT certificate. Responsible motorists are not only picking up the tab for evaders, they are also being put at risk by them.
“The rise in evasion is a wake-up call for better enforcement. Enforcing only from the computer record increases the risk of people dropping out of the system completely and joining the motoring underclass. The Government needs to boost the number of traffic police carrying out on-road crackdowns, so that the motoring underclass and the hard-core tax-dodgers are the ones feeling the pressure, not the law-abiding motorist.”